Data | Sudden spike in cases results in fastest COVID-19 doubling rate in Punjab in the past week

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Punjab, Haryana and Tamil Nadu witnessed a spurt in the rate of growth of cases in the last week, with cases in Punjab doubling every three days as of Monday. The rate of growth of cases in Kerala slowed down even further, indicating a successful containment of the spread. Both cases and fatalities are increasing rapidly in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Doubling time changes

Only in Tamil Nadu., Haryana & Punjab did the doubling time, as on May 4 (represented by the red circle), decrease compared to the value on April 28 (represented by the grey circle). This indicates a sharp rise in infections in these States.

Which States saw a sharp rise in cases?

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image/svg+xml3KeralaTelanganaMadhya PradeshKarnatakaRajasthanJ&KA.P.U.P.West BengalDelhiBiharGujaratMaharashtraHaryanaTamil NaduPunjab345678910203040506080100200

 

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Doubling time is the estimated number of days it takes for cases to double in a State. The higher the rate, the fewer the new infections in a State.

Testing time

Punjab has a low testing rate (754 tests/million people) relative to India’s avg. (818) despite cases doubling quickly in the last week. The chart plots the tests per million people in a State and the case doubling rate that State.

Testing rates v Doubling time

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image/svg+xml200100502010521DOUBLING TIMETESTS PER MILLION6001400200100020002400RajasthanIndia’s avg.PunjabHigh testing rate,slow doubling timeLow testingrate, fastdoubling timeLow testingrate, slowdoubling timeHigh testing rate, fastdoubling timeW.B.U.P.M.P.KeralaKarnatakaJ&KA.P.DelhiT.N.RajasthanHaryanaGujaratMaharashtraIndia’s avg.

 

Fatalities

Gujarat and Maharashtra are States with high fatality rates and faster case doubling time relative to the rest of the country. The chart plots the case doubling rate in a State and the fatality rate (deaths/total confirmed cases) in that State.

Doubling time v fatality rate

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image/svg+xml6543210Fatality rateDoubling time110550200Doubling Time LatestFatality RateIndia’s avgM.P.A.P.J&KDelhiU.P.T.N.BiharW.B.GujaratMaharashtraHaryanaPunjabHigh fatality rate,slow doubling timeLow fatality rate,slow doubling timeLow fatalityrate, fastdoubling timeHigh fatalityrate, fastdoubling timeTelanganaRajasthanKeralaIndia’s avg.Karnataka

 

Also read: Data | States which tested more in the initial days of the coronavirus outbreak found it easier to contain the spread

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